July’s research runs from money mules and neighbourhood policing to school holidays, AI safeguards, family liaison officers and what the public looks for in a chief.

The studies are grouped under the nearest policing portfolio. Each card separates the finding from the limits of the method, then offers a practical question rather than a universal instruction.

How to read the cardsFinding What the study reportedConfidence What the design can supportPractice A proportionate operational interpretation

Visual evidence guide

Different questions need different designs

This chart describes the six studies shown in this prototype. Bar length indicates count—not quality.

01

Crime

Domestic abuse: feeling heard was closely tied to satisfaction

Setting: Wales, United KingdomDesign: Victim survey
Indicative evidence

A useful association from a victim survey; it cannot establish cause.

How SEBP should assess evidence ↗

What did it find?

Victims who felt officers listened and took them seriously reported markedly higher satisfaction with the police response.

How confident can we be?

This identifies a strong association, not proof that one behaviour alone caused satisfaction. Experience, case outcome and vulnerability may overlap.

What may this mean in practice?

Treat communication as an observable part of service quality. Measure whether people understood what happened, felt heard and knew what would happen next.

Source paperUnderstanding Victim Satisfaction: Police Responses to Domestic Abuse in Wales, UK
02

Digital, data and technology

Probabilistic AI: useful tools, unfinished safeguards

Setting: England and WalesDesign: 25 expert interviews and document review
Exploratory evidence

Expert interviews describe opportunities and risks; they do not measure impact.

How SEBP should assess evidence ↗

What did it find?

Participants saw value in carefully targeted tools, but described governance, testing and institutional capability developing more slowly than adoption.

How confident can we be?

This is a detailed qualitative map of a fast-moving system, not an impact evaluation or a measure of how frequently each risk occurs.

What may this mean in practice?

Start with the operational problem. Require realistic evaluation, publish limitations and define the human reviewer’s actual task.

Source paperThe Use of Probabilistic AI in Law Enforcement and the Criminal Justice System of England and Wales
03

Local policing

School holidays change the crime mix, not just the crime total

Setting: SwedenDesign: Quasi-experimental study · 60,320 municipality-weeks
Moderate evidence

A strengthened observational comparison, but not a randomised trial.

How SEBP should assess evidence ↗

What did it find?

Recorded assaults fell during the winter break, especially among young people, while residential burglary rose and visitor destinations saw increases.

How confident can we be?

Staggered holiday dates and pre-trend checks strengthen the comparison, but it remains an analysis of recorded crime rather than a randomised trial.

What may this mean in practice?

Use school calendars as an operational variable: prevention and patrol patterns can shift with the changing mix of youth, residential and visitor demand.

Source paperSchool Breaks and Crime: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Sweden
04

Local policing

Focused foot patrol in Chile: a useful lesson in delivery

Setting: Santiago, ChileDesign: Randomised field experiment · 159 street segments
Strong design, uncertain delivery

Random allocation strengthens inference, while low delivery complicates interpretation.

How SEBP should assess evidence ↗

What did it find?

The programme did not produce a statistically clear reduction in overall crime frequency or harm. Officers completed around 30% of scheduled visits.

How confident can we be?

Random allocation gives a strong comparison, but low delivery and activity in control locations make the programme’s main test harder to interpret.

What may this mean in practice?

Patrol dose is part of the intervention. Track visits, supervise delivery and report both assignment and what actually reached each location.

Source paperFocused foot patrols in harm-weighted priority areas: evidence from a randomized field experiment in Chile
05

Local policing

Neighbourhood policing: familiar ingredients, uneven recipe

Setting: Metropolitan Police, United KingdomDesign: 28 interviews and focus-group participants
Exploratory evidence

A rich account of one force, not a comparison of outcomes.

How SEBP should assess evidence ↗

What did it find?

Participants agreed that visibility, engagement and problem-solving were central, but did not share a consistent definition or operating doctrine.

How confident can we be?

The study offers a useful picture of one large force at one point in time. It does not show that one model produces better outcomes.

What may this mean in practice?

Translate the neighbourhood promise into an operational minimum: ownership, protected time, problem selection, community influence and measures of delivery.

Source paper‘No one knows what we do, until we don’t do it’: defining neighbourhood policing
06

Workforce

Family liaison officers: protection is more than personal resilience

Setting: United KingdomDesign: Cross-sectional workforce study
Indicative evidence

Cross-sectional self-report identifies associations, not causal effects.

How SEBP should assess evidence ↗

What did it find?

Personal resilience and internal locus of control were associated with better wellbeing, but exposure and organisational conditions still shaped risk.

How confident can we be?

Self-report and a single time point cannot establish cause and effect or show whether resilience training changes later outcomes.

What may this mean in practice?

Do not turn workforce protection into an individual test. Combine selection and preparation with supervision, workload control, peer support and follow-up.

Source paperThe Role of Resilience and Internal Locus of Control as Protective Factors Against Secondary Trauma and Poor Wellbeing in UK Police Family Liaison Officers